Will we soon pay cheaper than the pump thanks to Donald Trump?

The US president’s desire to “reduce the price of oil” can theoretically have the consequences for the account paid by the French on the pump. But is it realistic?

The field from his campaign to his inauguration speech of the 47th President of the United States Donald Trump repeats it, he intends to significantly increase the national production of gas and oil.

Is this the main goal? Lower inflation due to price reduction for consumer pumps and American companies. But in this area it is more complicated than it, the United States cannot make the law alone, and Trump understood this.

“The price of the oil barrel is determined throughout the world and depends on many other parameters than that of an increase in American production”Summarizes Olivier Gantua, President of the French Union of Oil Industry (UFIP). That is why last Thursday, January 23, Donald Trump took care – during the intervention at the Davos forum – to cope with Saudi Arabia and its allies, these countries gathered in the organization of oil exporters (OPEC). “I’ll askSaudi Arabia And OPEC, in order to reduce the cost of oil, I am frankly surprised that they did not do this, before the election. Not to do this was not frankly proof of love “The American president launched. “If the price was lower, The war in Ukraine will be immediately completed“He then interrupted.

Saudi Arabia does not want this fall in prices

In fact, this ranting Donald Trump repeats the situation present at the beginning of his elections. In 2024, oil consumption around the world increased “About 1%”To reach 104.1 million barrels per day. “And forecasts are counting on a new increase by 1% in 2025”Pay attention to Olivier Gantua.

At the same time, “We also observe that the United States has forever increased oil production”Adds the president of UFIP. Their goal is to place the supply of oil above demand and achieve a drop in black gold prices. However, this is the key to explanation, Saudi Arabia and its allies (40% of the global oil production, if you think Russia) decided differently.

“OPEC countries and Russia meet every month to determine the overall strategy”Explains Olivier Gantua. “A drop in oil prices will damage their savings”He abounds “Therefore, they decide every day to reduce oil production and save about two million barrels under the curl.”Field

The role of the gendarme

In other words, Saudi Arabia and its allies play a major role in the oil market, providing a strict balance between demand and supply. And the threats of Donald Trump can change anything. “” “During his first mandate, Trump’s very aggressive style was something completely new for management for members of OPEC and Saudi ArabiaSays Nader Itaim, a hydrocarbon specialist in the media agency of Argus, based in Dubai. “Except that now, Saudi Arabia (which directs OPEC countries, the editor’s note) has a more assertive position. She understands what position she takes very well, her importance, and she also knows that she no longer needs to scare the United States. “Summarizes an expert on hydrocarbon dubaite. “In the end, OPEC members will do what they consider necessary for the market in order to maintain stability and balance. This will always exceed everything that any external force will dictate them “He concludes.

Therefore, the price of the pump will not decrease

In France, with the exception of the changes at the level of the dollar and the euro, the price of oil directly determines the price of gasoline, which comes out of oil refineries. Anyway, “If the three main parameters remain the same (increase in demand, an increase in production in the United States and Brazil and the political will of Saudi Arabia in order to maintain oil in reserve), the pump prices will not move not” ”” ”Olivier Gantua answers. And Donald Trump will not be able to do anything about it …